Thursday, August 2, 2012

Victor David Hanson (and yours truly!) On Election 2012


From Hanson's latest NRO column...

What could change the pulse of the election in the next three months?

Strangely enough, it may not be the economy, which is now boringly predictable: flat and not likely either to rebound or to plunge much further before the November election.

The new normal is 42 consecutive months of 8%–plus unemployment.

The dismal economy is expected to slog along with annual GDP growth of less than 2%.

* BUT THE FACTS ARE ONLY A PART OF THE STORY... (READ ON...)

The public shrugs at four straight $1 trillion–plus annual deficits.

* BECAUSE THEY'VE BEEN CONDITIONED TO! KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS ARE ESTABLISHMENT ECONOMICS! THE BASIC TEMPLATE OF MEDIA COVERAGE IS TO BOOST THE FALSE PREMISE THAT DEFICITS DON'T MATTER! EVEN MOST REPUBLICANS - THOSE IN GOVERNMENT AT LEAST - STILL BUY THE BASIC FALSE PREMISE OF KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS!

Balanced budgets belong to the last century.

Housing is still depressed after four years.

* AS ARE INTEREST RATES - ARTIFICIALLY SO! BUT ONCE AGAIN... THE KEYNESIANS LOVE ARTIFICIALLY LOW INTEREST RATES! THE BASIC PREMISE THAT ARTIFICIALLY LOW INTEREST RATES ARE "GOOD" IS RARELY CHALLENGED IN SUCH A WAY AS THE AVERAGE AMERICAN IS EXPOSED TO THE OPPOSITE ARGUMENT.

* AS TO HOUSING... AS WITH INTEREST RATES, THE HOUSING MARKET IS MANIPULATED BY GOVERNMENT. SUCH MANIPULATION NEVER WORKS IN THE LONG RUN. IT ONLY CREATES BUBBLES... WHICH AS WE'VE SEEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN... END UP POPPING WITH A BANG.

* BASICALLY THE PROBLEM WITH "HOUSING" IS THAT HOUSING PRICES HAVE BEEN DE-LINKED FROM INCOME AND THAT HOUSING ITSELF HAS BECOME AN "INVESTMENT" RATHER THAN A BASIC PURCHASE - WITH ALL THE RISK THIS ENTAILS.

Home equity and interest on passbook accounts are fossilized concepts. Not even the administration is arguing that the $831 billion in stimulus borrowing, ObamaCare, a $5 trillion increase in the national debt, or three years of near-zero interest rates have primed the economic pump.

* WELL... WHAT THEY CLAIM IS THAT THINGS WOULD HAVE BEEN WORSE ABSENT THE PUMP PRIMING. (I STRENUOUSLY DISAGREE.)

Yet Obama has not yet suffered all that much politically for the hard times, at least not in the manner accorded incumbents Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush.

* THE MEDIA, FOLKS... (*SIGH*)... THE MEDIA. THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA - THE ESTABLISHMENT MAINSTREAM MEDIA - IS STILL THE WINDOW THROUGH WHICH MOST VOTERS GET THEIR NEWS AND INDEED THEIR PERCEPTION OF REALITY FROM. THE MEDIA IS PROGRESSIVE. THE MEDIA IS LIBERAL. THE DEMOCRAT IS MORE NAKEDLY PARTISAN DEMOCRAT THAN EVER BEFORE.

* FOLKS... REMEMBER THE MISERY INDEX? (ANYONE IN HIS OR HER LATE 40's OR OLDER SHOULD!) YOU DON'T NOTICE IT BEING TOUTED TODAY, DO YOU? YOU DON'T NOTICE THE MEDIA OUTING THE GOVERNMENT FOR DELIBERATELY LOW-BALLING INFLATION... FOR BASICALLY LYING ABOUT INFLATION, DO YOU?

Instead, Obama argues mostly that the nightmare could have been worse. Or that four years ago George W. Bush left him a mess.

* FOLKS... HOW OFTEN DO YOU SEE OR HEAR THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA START LAYING OUT THE ECONOMIC STATS - THE NEGATIVE STATS - FROM JANUARY OF 2007, WHEN DEMOCRATS TOOK OVER BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS?

* BY THE WAY... IT'S NOT ONLY MEDIA BIAS... IT'S ALSO HOW STUPID THE LEADERS OF THE REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT ARE. THEY COULD BE POINTING ALL THIS OUT, BUT, BY AND LARGE THEY DON'T.

Or that a Republican majority in the House of Representatives beginning in 2011 derailed his successful agenda after two years of Democratic majorities.

* BOEHNER HAS FOLDED EVERY TIME WHEN CHALLENGED BY REID AND OBAMA.

Or that Romney is the sort of rich financial pirate who got us into the mess of 2008.

* AND TO AN EXTENT... THAT'S TRUE. (BUT THAT'S NEITHER HERE NOR THERE BECAUSE BOTH PARTIES ELEVATE THE FINANCE GUYS AND GALS RATHER THAN THE DOERS... THE CREATORS...

Romney counters that Obama’s neo-socialist policies turned a natural recovery into a near-permanent recession.

* YEP.

Expanded government, more regulations, constant talk of higher taxes, astronomical debt, a federal takeover of health care, insider subsidies to failing companies, and non-stop demonization of successful business people stalled the economy and scared the daylights out of job-creating entrepreneurs.

* YEP... YEP... YEP... YEP... YEP... YEP...

The public is about evenly split between the two arguments. About half seem to want even more government and public assistance; the other half want far less of Washington.

* AH... AND HERE'S WHERE WE POINT TO METASTASIS OF THE CANCER KILLING THE AMERICAN BODY POLITIC. HOW CAN WE SAVE AMERICA WHEN HALF THE POPULATION DOESN'T WANT TO SAVE AMERICA, BUT RATHER WANTS TO DESTROY EVERYTHING THAT ONCE MADE AMERICA AMERICA?

Everyone still insists the election will hinge on the economy and voter turnout, but at the same time there is no national consensus yet on whether Obama should be blamed for making bad things worse...

* WHICH REALLY TELLS YOU ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW... (BE AFRAID, MY FRIENDS... BE VERY AFRAID.)

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