* * *
After winning only six delegates in Wisconsin, and with
Ted Cruz poaching delegates in states he has won, like Louisiana, Donald Trump
either wins on the first ballot at Cleveland, or Trump does not win.
* ACTUALLY... WITH ALL DUE RESPECT TO PAT... I'M NOT SURE
HE'S RIGHT. OH... SURE... I'D RATHER TRUMP GET THE 1,237, BUT IF HE DOESN'T ON
THE FIRST BALLOT HE'S NOT NECESSARILY OUT. FAR TOO MANY VARIABLES AND
SCENARIOS. ANYWAY... JUST TRYING TO CHEER UP YOU TRUMP FOLKS! (MY FELLOW TRUMP
FOLKS, THAT IS!)
Yet, as that huge, roaring reception he received in his
first post-Wisconsin appearance in Bethpage, N.Y., testifies, the Donald
remains not only the front-runner, but the most exciting figure in the race.
Moreover, after the New York, New England, mid-Atlantic and
California primaries, Trump should be within striking distance of the 1,237
delegates needed for the nomination.
He will then have to persuade uncommitted delegates to
back him, and perhaps do a deal with one of the defeated candidates, Marco
Rubio or John Kasich, to win the remaining few needed to go over the top.
* WASH YOUR MOUTH OUT WITH SOAP, PAT BUCHANAN! BOTH RUBIO
AND KASICH ARE SCUM! I FEAR PICKING ONE OF THEM TO RUN AS HIS VP WOULD BE THE
KISS OF DEATH TO A TRUMP-LED TICKET.
In 1976, Ronald Reagan, shy of the delegates he needed to
defeat President Ford, offered second place on his ticket to Sen. Richard
Schweiker, a moderate from Pennsylvania. This brainstorm of Reagan campaign
manager John Sears did not produce the required delegates, and Reagan received
an envelope from a conservative Congressman with 30 dimes in it — 30 pieces of
silver. Still, Reagan was right to roll the dice.
* WELL... COULD SCHWEIKER REALLY HAVE BEEN WORSE THAN
BUSH? (FOR AS WE FOUND OUT... BUSH WAS PRETTY FRIGGIN' BAD...)
But assume Trump reaches 1,237 on the first ballot. Would
the GOP establishment accept his leadership, back his ticket, and help to bring
together all the elements — nationalist, Tea Party, conservative and moderate —
of a grand coalition to defeat Hillary Clinton?
* THEY'D HAVE TO! THEY'D HAVE NO CHOICE!
Or would the Establishment refuse to endorse Trump,
ensure his defeat, and hoping to pick up the pieces of a shattered party, as
Govs. Nelson Rockefeller and George Romney assumed they would do after they
deserted Barry Goldwater in 1964.
* NOPE. THEY WOULDN'T. AND THAT'S THAT.
Prediction: If the GOP establishment does collude to
steal the nomination from the candidate who has won the most states, most
delegates and most votes, not only could the party be crushed in November, but
that Establishment could be discredited in perpetuity.
* FRANKLY... I WOULD PREDICT ASSASSINATIONS. DEFINITELY VIOLENCE WOULD BREAK OUT - MASSIVE CIVIL DISORDER. THERE'S ONLY SO FAR YOU CAN
PUSH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE... THOSE WHO REMAIN TRUE AMERICANS, THAT IS.
For those who have come out for Trump, and have given the
GOP the largest turnouts of any party in a primary season in history, will not
be give their allegiance to a Beltway elite that cheated them of the prize they
had won. Sullen and angry, they will be going home, not soon to return.
* NO. AGAIN... VIOLENCE WOULD BE THE INEVITABLE RESULT.
AND IN THE AGE OF THE INTERNET NO DELEGATE WHO BETRAYS "WE THE
PEOPLE" WILL BE SAFE. THEY JUST... WOULDN'T DARE STEAL THE NOMINATION.
An Establishment embrace of a rule-or-ruin course —
Better to lose, than win with Trump! — seems irrational. But it is not
irrational if one’s preeminence and position are the summum bonum of one’s
political existence.
* NO. IT'S NOT "IRRATIONAL." EXCEPT... IF ONE VALUES
HIS/HER PHYSICAL SAFETY AND INDEED HIS/HER LIFE... I'D STRONGLY ADVISE AGAINST
IT.
* FOLKS... DON'T GET ME WRONG... I'M NOT PREACHING
VIOLENCE - I'M SIMPLY SHARING MY ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION AND THE LIKELY OUTCOME OF
STEALING THE NOMINATION FROM TRUMP AND/OR CRUZ.
* AGAIN... IF TRUMP DOESN'T WIN 1,237, THEN IT'S A
TWO-MAN RUN-OFF - TRUMP VS. CRUZ. IF THAT HAPPENS... MAY THE BEST MAN WIN.
To avoid the Hobbesian choice — back Trump or abandon
Trump — the Establishment must block him from a first-ballot victory. And
indispensable to the Anybody-But-Trump coalition is Ted Cruz, whom the Establishment,
if possible, detests even more than Trump.
* YEP. THEY DO! (WHICH IS A HUGE PLUS FOR CRUZ IN MY
BOOK!)
One testament to the esteem in which Cruz is held is that
only two of his 53 Senate GOP colleagues have endorsed him, and one of these,
Lindsey Graham, did so as the lesser of two evils.
* RAND PAUL IS A SELF-RIGHTEOUS VINDICTIVE LITTLE PRIG.
(*SHRUG*)
Here is the second peril for the GOP elites. If Trump is
stopped on the first ballot, the delegates who leave him on the second ballot
may go to Cruz, and the stampede could be on.
* YEP. THAT'S TRUE. AND I CAN LIVE WITH THAT. AGAIN... A
RUN-OFF BETWEEN THE TWO TOP VOTE GETTERS SEEMS REASONABLE TO ME! THE NUMBER IS
1,237 AND IF TRUMP CAN'T GET THERE... WELL... THEN IT'S A TWO-MAN RACE TO
1,237. THOSE ARE THE RULES AND THEY'RE FAIR RULES. (SUPERBOWL... WORLD SERIES...)
(*ANOTHER SHRUG*)
Yet, it is hard to see how a Cruz nomination is better
for the party than a Trump nomination.
For Cruz cannot win in Cleveland, unless the man with the
most votes and delegates is deprived of a nomination to which he has a far
stronger claim, if this country remains a democratic republic.
* AGAIN. I DISAGREE. CLEARLY RUN-OFFS - RUN-OFFS BETWEEN
THE TOP TWO - ARE NOT ONLY IN KEEPING WITH THE LETTER OF THE RULES, BUT ALSO
THE SPIRIT - AS WELL AS THE SPIRIT OF AMERICAN CONTESTS IN GENERAL. (AGAIN...
SUPERBOWL... WORLD SERIES... ETC.)
A Cruz victory in Cleveland would likely lead to the
angry and bitter departure of the Trump delegates, and, in the fall, to a mass
defection of the blue-collar, Middle-American Trump voters, especially above
the Mason-Dixon line where Cruz is already weak.
* AND, FOLKS... THIS IS WHERE ALL TRUMP SUPPORTERS AND
ALL CRUZ SUPPORTERS NEED TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE! COME WHAT MAY, TRUMP AND
CRUZ MUST BE ON THE SAME PAGE AS SUPPORTING EACH OTHER AGAINST BOTH THE
DEMOCRATS... THE LEFTISTS... AND THE RINOs.
The latest poll of Republicans in New York has Trump
above 50%, with Cruz running third at 17%. Even in the South, which was to be
Ted Cruz’s firewall, Trump beat him repeatedly.
* FOLKS... AGAIN... IT'S A COMPETITION BETWEEN TRUMP AND
CRUZ; IT'S LIFE OR DEATH... THE FATE OF OUR COUNTRY... WHEN IT BECOMES LEFTIST
DEMOCRATS AND RINOs VS. "WE THE PEOPLE."
And while Cruz can claim to be a more reliable
conservative than Trump, how does that translate into electoral votes in the
fall?
* IF TRUMP WINS... CRUZ MUST SINCERELY SUPPORT HIM 110%;
AND THE SAME APPLIES WITH REGARD TO TRUMP AND HIS SUPPORTERS SHOULD CRUZ PULL
IT OUT IN A RUN-OFF. THE LEFTISTS AND THE RINOs MUST, MUST, MUST BE DEFEATED
COME NOVEMBER OR ELSE THE COUNTRY IS LOST. AND THAT'S THE GOD'S HONEST TRUTH.
Is the Republican Establishment, having been repudiated
in the primaries in a historic turnout by the party base, now engaged in a
willful act of self-deception?
* I'M FOCUSED ON REALITY, FOLKS.
Can that Establishment believe it can rob Trump of a
nomination he has all but won, then hold off a right-wing Cruz surge that would
ensue, then trot out of the stable one of its own, Speaker Paul Ryan, crown him
at the convention, and then win in November?
* NO. (BUT IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT THEY BELIEVE... OR WHAT THEY WANT
TO BELIEVE; ALL THAT MATTERS IS THE REALITY, AND THE REALITY IS THAT EITHER
TRUMP OR CRUZ MUST BE THE NOMINEE.
* AND, AGAIN... I'D LOVE A TRUMP-CRUZ TICKET!
The Republican Establishment is not the solution to the
party’s problems; the Republican Establishment is the problem.
* SO TRUE!
While the GOP appears headed for a train wreck in
Cleveland, the principal ingredients of a Republican victory and a Republican
future will all be present there: Cruz conservatives and Tea Party types,
Trumpite nationalists and populists, Rubio-Kasich-Bush centrists and moderates.
Political statesmanship could yet bring about unity, and
victory.
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