Thursday, December 17, 2009

What Healthcare "Reform" May Mean to Me and Mary


Short answer: We may end up saving a great deal of money!

As best I understand it, the various Democratic healthcare "reform" plans have two main premises in common:

1) Insurance companies will not be able to deny individuals coverage based on pre-existing conditions;

2) Premiums will be largely "normed" so that your actual medical care needs will be largely irrelevant in terms of the amount of premiums you'll pay.

Do I have this right...??? Is this the basic concept...???

When supporters laud the recently passed House Plan and commend the supposed virtues of the proposed Senate Plan these are the two "selling points" that are most often cited.

Correct...??? Are these not two of the key pro-"reform" talking points advanced by adherents...???

Hey, it gets better! (Or so proponents claim...) Democrats insist that the "reform" proposals will "bend the cost curve" on health insurance/ health care in the public's favor. Just this morning, senior Obama adviser David Axelrod stated in no uncertain terms while debating with critics...

“To defeat a bill that will bend the curve on this inexorable rise in health-care costs is insane,” Axelrod said. "I think that would be a tragic, tragic outcome. I don’t think that you want this moment to pass. It will not come back."

Hmm... so let's see... according to the Democrats, their Plan (in final form at least) will cover insurance seekers with pre-existing conditions - at an affordable price not too far out of line with what their perfectly healthy peers will be paying in premiums - and in tandem with this the nation as a whole will experience positive "cost bending" limiting the previously inexorable rise in health care costs.

Now I don't know about the rest of you... but I don't buy it.

That said, if the Democrats are successful in their push for legislation banning exclusions for pre-existing conditions while also requiring that the insurance companies provide policies upon demand at basically the same premium rate that people without pre-existing conditions are being charged, then William R. and Mary T. Barker will be canceling our existing insurance, going, without; we'll pay the proposed $750 fine, pay out of pocket for our yearly exams and necessary "normal" medical tests, and if (when?) we run into a situation where "they've found something" and expensive tests and hugely expensive treatments are required... well... that's when we'll again sign up for health insurance and receive "coverage" and thus treatment!

Folks... understand the math.

Mary and I presently pay - out of pocket - approximately $800/mo. (add to this our yearly and per visit or per prescription deductibles) in order to "insure" that we're "covered" and thus able to get the best care possible when we require medical treatment.

So... $800 x 12 = $9,600/yr. plus let's low ball deductibles (say $400) = $10,000/yr.

Now... if I understand the Democrat's healthcare "reform" plan - what the House has already passed and what's presently before the Senate - the option they're apparently "offering" (allowing) my wife and I is to simply jettison our present $10,000 yearly health insurance/health care expenses in favor of going without insurance, paying a $750 fine (or if per person fines totaling $1,500) for not having insurance, spending a few hundred dollars (hell... let's "high ball" the estimate - let's say $1,250) for out of pocket routine yearly medicare exams and care, and if at some point in the future an exam turns up a problem... at that point we "opt back in" and purchase an insurance policy at the same premium rate we would have been paying all along!

Sounds like a heck of a deal... for Mary and I!

Under the scenario I've just laid out, we'd be saving thousand of dollars a year! Depending upon whether the fine would be $750 for the two of us (as husband and wife) or $1,500 (each fined separately as individuals) and figuring on out of pocket yearly routine medical expenses of $1,250, we'd be saving at least $7,250 on up to $8,000 (and even more if we don't spend $1,250 on out of pocket routine medical care expenses in a year).

Yes, you can look at it as "scamming the system." That's exactly what Mary and I would both call it! Yet that's what we'll do if the Democrats are stupid and irresponsible to pass legislation that would allow such "gaming the system."

Hey... we'd be stupid not to.

My advice to those of you who don't believe Congress should pass legislation that would allow the sort of scheme I've outlined... well... the first thing I'd suggest you do is call your Member of Congress and ask if such a scenario is possible according to the bill the House passed.

Just for the heck of it I just spent ten minutes on the phone talking to not one, but two staffers of my own Congressman, John Hall (D-NY 19th). Just to let you folks know, neither staffer was willing or able to tell me that my understanding of the House bill allowing such a scenario was incorrect.

(*SHRUG*)

If you can get through to the Washington DC or local state office of each of your two United States Senators you might wanna ask the staffers you speak to whether the "Barker Scenario" as outlined is viable. And if they tell you it's not... insist that they cite the specific language in the passed House bill and the specific language in the proposed Senate bill which would disallow individuals from "gaming the system" in the manner I've proposed.

(*SHRUG*)

Folks... this is the Age of Obama... the Age of Pelosi and Reid... the Age of Liberal Ascendancy... if you don't believe the Democratic Party is capable of passing legislation with a loophole such as that I've based the premise of this post on...

(*SIGH*)

Make the calls. If you don't get a straight answer from the politicians, call up your local/regional newspaper and suggest that they take a crack at getting to the bottom of this question.

Folks... this is a biggie!

15 comments:

Rodak said...

2) Premiums will be largely "normed" so that your actual medical care needs will be largely irrelevant in terms of the amount of premiums you'll pay.

I don't think that's accurate.

William R. Barker said...

I'm not positive it is either, Rodak, but that's my understanding; that's certainly the way they've been selling the plan (various plans) in a broad sense.

So... here's what should blow your mind --

1) I'm not sure.

OK.

2) You're not sure.

OK.

3) MY OWN SECOND TERM CONGRESSMAN'S STAFF - AND HE VOTED "AYE" - BASICALLY RESPONDED TO MY QUESTIONS WITH A "WE'RE NOT SURE."

(But as I said in the post... they refused to directly dispute my understanding of the bill.)

BILL

P.S. - Rob. I reiterate the challenge I threw out in my post: Call up you Member of Congress and see if he or she will give you a straight answer ALONG WITH A CITATION of where to find the statutory language in the House bill ALREADY PASSED.

I'd be thrilled to death to find that they're not as damned stupid and irresponsible as I have reason to believe they are; in other words... I'd love to be proven wrong.

William R. Barker said...

Rob. Follow me on this.

1) http://johnhall.house.gov/

2) http://energycommerce.house.gov/Press_111/health_care/hr3962_SUMMARY.pdf

QUOTING --

PAGE 2: Guaranteed coverage and insurance market reforms --

Insurance companies will no longer be able to engage in discriminatory practices that enable them to refuse to sell or renew policies today due to an individual’s health status. In addition, they can no longer exclude coverage of treatments for pre-existing health conditions. The bill also protects consumers by prohibiting lifetime and annual limits on benefits. It also
limits the ability of insurance companies to charge higher rates due to health status, gender, or other factors. Under the proposal, premiums can vary based only on age (no more than 2:1), geography and family size.

ALSO PAGE 2: Caps annual out-of-pocket spending.

Will cap annual out-of-pocket spending at a maximum of $5,000 per
individual and $10,000 per family to prevent bankruptcies from medical expenses.

PAGE 3: Individual responsibility.

Except in cases of hardship, once market reforms and affordability credits are in effect, individuals will be responsible for obtaining and maintaining health insurance coverage. Those who choose to not obtain coverage will pay a penalty capped at 2.5 percent of modified adjusted gross income above a specified level.

* So Rob... and anyone else reading this... again I ask you - having provided the above information - where do I seem to be going wrong?

BILL

Rodak said...

"Under the proposal, premiums can vary based only on age, (no more than 2:1), geography and family size."

Bingo! There's enough wiggle-room there for an insurance corporation legal team to drive an armored division through.

Rodak said...

"Okay, Mr. Jones, let's do the math on your premium...lessee...well, you're over 55 that doubles it. And you have four dependents, one of whom is also over 55...and, unfortunately, Mr. Jones, you reside in Cheboygan. So (getting out my adding machine here) Age X Family Size X Age again X Geographical Location = WOW! One whopping big take for the firm, Mr. Jones!

William R. Barker said...

Re: "Age"

Rob. I'm 47. Next year I'll be 48. The year after I'll be 49 and so on and so forth. That's immutable. (Unless I die of course.) (*GRIN*)

This doesn't counter my point in any way.

If I keep on paying insurance and my rate goes up year by year...

(And the politicians are actually singing the tune that they'll prevent this - that's obviously the major appeal to seniors.)

...then whether I save thousands upon thousands of dollars per year in premium savings by NOT paying premiums (because I've opted out of insurance and instead pay the much cheaper fine) for a period of say 10 years and then at age 57 or not, if I decide to opt back in at age 57 my premiums will still be AGE related and they'll have nothing to do with the fact that I gamed the system for 10 years.

Rob. Age is age. (*SHRUG*) Again, the "summary" of the House bill is quite clear about my right to opt in to any insurance plan I choose at any time I choose and they can't refuse me and they CAN'T penalize me with higher premiums just because I choose to be uninsured all those years when I didn't need insurance.

Rob. This isn't rocket science. I'm reading from - and posting the link to - the actual House committee summary. It says what it says.

BILL

William R. Barker said...

Rob. Focusing on your second point...

(*SMILE*)

SAME CONCEPT, pal!

(*LAUGHING OUT LOUD*)

Here. Allow me to use your own math --

"Age X Family Size X Age again X Geographical Location ="

Yes! It EQUALS! It equals what it equals!

Rob. Your age is your age. Your family size is your family size. Your geographic location is your geographic location. None of this has anything to do with whether you've gamed the system during healthy times or not!!!

(*SIGH*)

Again, Rob... you're not posting any info which counters the logic of my thread post.

BILL

Rodak said...

I was pointing out only that your estimation of the cost of trying to game the system is probably much, much less than it would be for many, if not most, people. Maybe even you. You can't know that.
And also that insurance corporation employ whole staffs of people who are expert in making sure that you don't, and that they game the gov't regulators.

William R. Barker said...

Rob. With all due respect, you were "pointing out" absolutely nothing which countered the evidence presented backing up my contentions.

Anyway... (*SHRUG*)... I have no interest in arguing with you for the sake of passing the time. Bottom line, as I've written several times already, I hope I'm wrong and the dolts in Washington aren't really stupid enough to leave loopholes large enough to drive a truck though.

Thing is... I'm hearing NOTHING - getting no facts, no citations, nothing besides "guesses" - countering what appears to be the case and btw when referring to the summary actually reinforces the case.

Hey... I get it... you don't care if the math works, if the bill makes sense, if there are deficits, debts, and if so how high they'll go. I understand that about you.

But for folks who actually "believe" in economic reality in a bookkeeping, actuarial sense... the points I'm bringing up and the questions I'm raising are exactly points and questions the MSM should be addressing.

Rob. Again. I was opposed to the House Plan. From everything I've heard or read about the Senate bill - from both sides of the debate - I'm opposed to that too.

You know my views on how we should be TRULY reforming health insurance/health care. (There's a whole thread post on the topic somewhere in the recent archives.)

PERSONALLY, however... even though I believe if the Democrats plans go into effect it'll be a bad thing for American, as far as the world of Bill and Mary Barker is concerned, from everything I've been able to gather it looks like the Dems are creating the perfect opportunity for folks like me to save money personally and damn the cost to society.

(*SHRUG*)

BILL

Rodak said...

Do you really believe that what you propose to do won't occur to millions of other Americans? Do you also, then, believe that corporations that up to this point have been selling health insurance are going to continue to do so, if people can wait until they have a $2 million dose a cancer to sign up to have the insurance company pay for it all, when you've been paying nothing to the insurance company up to that point, along with millions of others? From where are they getting the money to pay your bills? If the law mandates that, the company will simply stop selling health insurance. "But call me when you want to insure your house, boat, car..." they'll say.

William R. Barker said...

"Do you really believe that what you propose to do won't occur to millions of other Americans?"

THAT'S...
MY...
POINT...!!!

Rob.

THAT'S MY POINT...!!!

Jeez... read the damn thread post again. Re-read my comments here in the comment section.

YOU'VE HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD...!!!

THAT'S WHAT I'M SAYING...!!!

"Do you also, then, believe that corporations that up to this point have been selling health insurance are going to continue to do so..."

Yes, Rob... AGAIN... you're reading the between the lines logic of what I'm getting at!

Yes... the federal government can mandate by law that insurers reject no one and charge everyone rates within given perimeters, but then you're stuck with the REAL ECONOMIC REPERCUSSIONS!

Yes, Rob... damn good question... if government basically mandates a system that "bends" economic reality only via legislative fiat and not via the "laws of economics" what will then happen?

Yeah... THAT'S what I'm getting at!

"...if people can wait until they have a $2 million dose a cancer to sign up to have the insurance company pay for it all..."

PRECISELY...!!! YES...! You've GOT it now! THIS is what - from my reading of descriptions of the bill as well as the public summary provided by the Congressional committee itself - the bill(s) as written and presented SEEM to do!

Thank you...

THANK YOU...

Yes... you've finally connected the dots and you now apparently understand what I'm focused on.

(*WINK*)

(It's a frigg'n Christmas MIRACLE!)

"If the law mandates that, the company will simply stop selling health insurance."

BINGO!

Rob. Government does stupid stuff (see: The Law of Unintended Consequences) all the time!

Hell... remember when (I think it was back in the Pappy Bush years) someone came up with the "bright" idea of putting a surcharge on luxury purchases - big ticket items like boats - and the result was thousands of job losses in the U.S. boat building industry?

ANYWAY... we're in AGREEMENT that allowing me and millions of "Bill's" and "Mary's" to do what I propose would capsize the health insurance industry... but the QUESTION remains: DOES THE BILL ALLOW "The Bill & Mary Scenario"?

ONE MORE TIME... (*DEEP BREATH*)... IT SEEMS TO!

Again... from what I'm reading (and you're reading the same damn summary!) it APPEARS that the bill already passed by the House DOES allow "The Bill & Mary Scenario."

Hey... as I've noted... I've called my Congressman's office. I've spoken to not just one, but two different staffers. They weren't able to give me a straight answer yesterday and though they took my number and promised me a call back when they had the answer, so far no call.

Rob. Last time. This isn't something we should be "arguing" about. I'm simply building the case concerning what I can gather of the facts as known.

(*SHRUG*)

If the premise of my comments and questions is so silly... well... then it should be EASY for you or anyone else to come up with authoritative clear evidence discounting my perception of what the bill(s) seem to allow.

(*SHRUG*)

BILL

William R. Barker said...

ROB.

Follow me here:

There's a PENALTY written into the bill(s) for people who won't "cooperate" with the "must have insurance" mandate.

Agreed...??? I've just noted a fact - a fact even YOU acknowledge?

So... think logically... what do you suppose the PURPOSE of such a penalty is...???

Would you agree with me that the purpose is to push folks to abide by the mandate and buy insurance?

AGREED...???

OK.

BUT HERE'S WHAT I'M SAYING...

Re-read my thread post.

FOLLOW THE MATH!

If the "fine" is going to be $750 or $1,000 or $1,500 or $2,000...

(Either $750 or $1,000 per couple or $1,500/$2,000 per couple)

...it'll make absolute self-serving economic sense for folks like me and my wife to PAY THE DAMN FINE as opposed to buying the mandated insurance at (in our case) $9,600 in premiums alone per year.

FURTHERMORE...

If the flip side of the "mandate" coin is that when and if one or both of us DO get sick we can simply sign up (in our case opt back into) for insurance and be charged the same premiums we would have been paying year by year anyway (based on age, family size, location, etc.) then THERE IS NO REAL DOWN SIDE to "The Barker Scenario."

Rob. YES! WE AGREE! Such a government bill allowing such a loophole (a loophole large enough to destroy the whole system!) sounds like something no legislative body in it's collective right mind would ever pass...

(*SNORT*)

ROB. AGAIN. YOU'RE READING THE SAME BILL SUMMARY I AM...!!!

(*SHRUG*)

It "seems" that this is EXACTLY what the morons are on track to create!

Now if the penalty for not having insurance was equal to the yearly cost of having insurance, obviously the "Bill Scenario" would be a non-starter.

BUT, ROB... the penalty ISN'T $10,000 a year... not according to anything I've read; according to what I've read the penalty will be... as I keep repeating... somewhere between $750/yr. and $2,000/yr. for a couple.

(*SHRUG*)

Hey... if there's no "danger" of "The Barker Scenario"... why put a penalty into the bill at all?

AGAIN... the goal is apparently to "nudge" folks into "doing the right thing" and "paying their fair share."

BUT AGAIN, ROB... a "nudge" ain't gonna do it for me and my wife. We're gonna "game" the system because "gaming" the system makes economic sense at the level they've set the penalty and with the flip side being no real health care consequences.

AND YEAH, ROB... as YOU so RIGHTLY point out... Mary and I wouldn't be alone; basically every American in our boat who currently pays for their own insurance basically out of pocket will have every incentive to do the same damn "gaming" as we're talking about.

BILL

Rodak said...

But, if everybody opts--wisely, according to your scenario--to pay the $750 a head, rather than thousands to buy insurance--and why wouldn't they?--then the insurance companies will quickly be out of business. Why would they be paying out claims for people who never signed up until they were sick?
Your scheme is certainly the quickest way to bring about what I want, which is single-payer, tax-funded, universal health insurance.

William R. Barker said...

"Your scheme is certainly the quickest way to bring about what I want, which is single-payer, tax-funded, universal health insurance."

Aahh... and here we get to the obvious conspiracy theory, namely:

YES... only it's not "my scheme" to create a situation where this "loophole" exists and thus presents a pathway for folks like me to "game the system" thus ultimately leading to the inevitable DESTRUCTION of the system.

Again... if you look at it from the conspiracy perspective... from the standpoint of the Left it's actually a BRILLIANT and pretty much fool proof strategy.

IF this is what's happening (as opposed to a level of stupidity among our elected officials in Washington that even I find it hard to contemplate) then what I keep on referring to as a "loophole" is actually a DELIBERATE BOOBY-TRAP.

(*SHRUG*)

You tell me, Rob.

We both agree on the "logic" of such a "plan" from the perspective of folks like you who want to see the private for profit health insurance/delivery system dismantled and government run single payer put in it's place.

(*SMILE*)

I'm glad that over a two-day period through patience and perseverance I've been able to help you connect the dots.

(*WINK*)

BILL

Rodak said...

If you reread what I've been writing, you will see that I had the dots connected from the git-go. We've only been haggling about the cost of it.