Too F--king Stupid to Follow the Math...???

Chris Cillizza writing in the Washington Post

*  *  *

Republicans have a major electoral-map problem in November. Major.

* YEP....

Donald Trump’s victory last week in Indiana’s primary not only effectively sealed the GOP nomination for the real estate billionaire but also brought into sharp relief how difficult it will be for any Republican to get to 270 electoral votes and beat Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president this fall.

Start here: Eighteen states plus the District of Columbia have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election between 1992 and 2012. Add them up, and you get 242 electoral votes.

By contrast, 13 states have voted for the Republican presidential nominee in each of the past six elections. Total them up and you get 102 electoral votes.

There are two important takeaways from these facts: The generic Democratic nominee starts with an electoral vote lead of 140, and the Democratic nominee needs to find only 28 votes beyond that reliable base to win the presidency.

* YEP.

* ACTUALLY, IT'S NOT REALLY THAT SIMPLE SINCE TRUMP PUTS BLUE STATES INTO PLAY... BUT... YOU FOLKS GET THE AUTHOR'S POINT - RIGHT?

What that means in practical terms is that if Clinton wins the 19 states that every Democratic nominee dating to her husband has won and she wins Florida (29 electoral votes), she wins the White House. It’s that simple.

* THE KEY FOR TRUMP IS WINNING BOTH RED STATES AND BLUE STATES. (YEAH... "DUH"... BUT... MANY OF MY READERS APPARENTLY NEED TO BE REMINDED OF THIS!)

Or if she wins the 19 reliable Democratic states and Virginia (13 electoral votes) and Ohio (18). Or the 19 states plus Nevada (6), Colorado (9) and North Carolina (15).

You get the idea.

* DO YOU FOLKS "GET THE IDEA?" SERIOUSLY... I CHAT WITH MANY OF YOU FOLKS READING THIS ON FB EVERY DAY, AND SOMETIMES IT SEEMS TO ME AS IF A GREAT MANY OF YOU ARE JUST TOO FUCKING STUPID TO FOLLOW THE MATH. (AT LEAST THAT'S THE IMPRESSION I GET VIA SOME OF THE COMMENTARY...)

There are lots and lots and lots of ways for Clinton — or any Democratic nominee — to get to 270 electoral votes. There are very few ways for Trump — or any Republican nominee — to get there.

* DON'T DESPAIR, FOLKS! THAT'S THE THING ABOUT THE TRUMP CANDIDACY; HE - PERSONALLY - HAS THE BEST SHOT AT WINNING RED STATES! AT LEAST IN THEORY, TRUMP CAN WIN STATES CRUZ WOULD NEVER HAVE HAD A SHOT OF WINNING.

It’s easy — and, for many Republicans, useful — to cast this electoral-college morass as Trump’s fault, the obvious outcome of nominating a candidate who has historically high unfavorability numbers among key groups.

* DON'T WORRY ABOUT THE UNFAVORABLES. FOCUS ON THE FAVORABLES! (AND SECONDARILY... FOCUS ON CLINTON'S UNFAVORABLES!)

But to do so ignores recent history. Barack Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008 and 332 in 2012. The Republican presidential nominee hasn’t crested 300 electoral votes since the 1988 election, when George H.W. Bush won 426. (George W. Bush won the White House with 271 electoral votes in 2000 and claimed a second term with 286.)

* PAPPY BUSH DIDN'T WIN WITH 426 VOTES FOR ANY OTHER REASON THAN THE FACT THAT HE RAN ON CONTINUING PRESIDENT REAGAN'S POLICIES. (AND UPON BEING ELECTED, BUSH STABBED REAGAN IN THE BACK AND STARTED DISMANTLING HIS LEGACY; THE RESULT BEING CLINTON'S ELECTION IN '92.)

Democrats’ electoral-map advantage echoes the clear head start Republicans had during the 1980s, when Bush’s 426 electoral votes were the fewest that the GOP presidential nominee won that decade. Ronald Reagan won the White House in 1980 with 489 electoral votes and followed that up with 525 in 1984.

The current Republican disadvantage in the electoral map is less about any individual candidate than it is about demographics. As the country, and the voting public, has become less white and as Republicans have proved incapable of winning over non-white voters, a number of states have moved toward Democrats over the past decade.

* YEP...

(*SIGH*)

* THE DEMOCRATS WERE BRILLIANT IN PLANTING THE SEEDS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATION VIA THE 1965 IMMIGRATION "REFORM" BILL.

(*ANOTHER SIGH*)

Perhaps the best example of this movement and how it has hurt Republicans is New Mexico, whose population is almost half Hispanic. In 2004, George W. Bush won the Land of Enchantment in his bid for a second term. (His margin over John F. Kerry was 588 votes.) Eight years later, Obama won the state by 10 percentage points over Mitt Romney; neither side targeted it in any meaningful way. In 2016, it’s not even on the long list of potentially competitive states.

* IT COULD BE WITH TRUMP!

What has become increasingly clear is that any state with a large or growing non-white population has become more difficult for Republicans to win.

* DUH!

Virginia and North Carolina, long Republican strongholds, have moved closer and closer to Democrats of late. (Obama won both states in 2008 and carried Virginia in 2012.)

* VIRGINIA IS A SPECIAL CASE: EVEN THE WHITE VOTE... PARTICULARLY THE MIDDLE, UPPER-MIDDLE, AND UPPER CLASS WHITE VOTE... IS UP FOR GRABS BECAUSE MANY OF THESE PEOPLE DEPEND UPON GOVERNMENT JOBS (DEPEND DIRECTLY) OR GOVERNMENT CONTRACT-SUPPORTED (INDIRECT) EMPLOYMENT.

* FOLKS... UNDERSTAND... THE WELFARE STATE ISN'T JUST ABOUT FOOD-STAMPS AND THE LIKE; IT'S ABOUT "BRIBING" ALL SORTS OF AMERICANS VIA ALL SORTS OF GOVERNMENT LARGESS. (FINANCED THROUGH TAXES AND BORROWING.)

At the same time, as these states have grown friendlier to Democrats, there are very few states that are growing increasingly Republican. Wisconsin and Minnesota are two, but neither is moving rapidly in Republicans’ favor just yet.

Trump isn’t to blame for any of that. But his remarkably high disapproval numbers among Hispanics and his hard-line stance on illegal immigration — we are going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it! — could make what is already a huge demographic or electoral-map problem for Republicans even worse.

* SEE... THE AUTHOR IS TOO LIMITED IN HIS THINKING TO UNDERSTAND THAT TRUMP'S STANCE ACTUALLY PLAYS WELL WITH MANY BLACK AND INDEED EVEN WITH MANY HISPANICS. UNDERSTAND, FOLKS, IT'S OUR OWN POOR AND LOWER MIDDLE CLASS WHO DIRECTLY COMPETE WITH ILLEGAL (AND LEGAL) IMMIGRANTS FOR JOBS AND A PIECE OF THE AMERICAN DREAM. THESE PEOPLE - AFRICAN-AMERICANS AND HISPANIC-AMERICANS - COULD BE AND SHOULD BE NATURAL TRUMP SUPPORTERS.

A poll released Sunday in Georgia shows Trump at 42% to Clinton’s 41%. Arizona, long a Republican stronghold at the presidential level, could be in play this year because of Trump’s terrible numbers among Hispanics.

* AGAIN... THE AUTHOR'S WORLDVIEW IS SEVERELY LIMITED BY HIS MISTAKEN LIBERAL ASSUMPTIONS.

(*SHRUG*)

The counter-argument made by Trump allies is that he can make the industrial Midwest more competitive than past Republican nominees because of his strengths among white male voters.

* NOT... JUST... WHITE... MALE... VOTERS...

(*SMILE*)

Wins in Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania would certainly open up the map for Republicans in ways that recent nominees have been unable to do. But, so far at least, there’s scant polling evidence that Trump can put those states in play in the fall.

* IGNORE THE POLLS. AND FOLKS... REMEMBER... THE LEFT AND THEIR MEDIA ALLIES ARE GONNA USE THEIR PORTRAYAL OF THE POLLS AS A WEAPON AGAINST TRUMP - AS THEY WOULD AGAINST ANY REPUBLICAN NOMINEE. DON'T TAKE ANYTHING YOU READ AT FACE VALUE. AND REMEMBER... LIKE "DR. HOUSE" USED TO SAY... "EVERYBODY LIES."

(*WINK*)

Trump doesn’t help matters. But the Republican map problem goes deeper than him — or any one candidate. Blaming Trump for a loss in November would not only miss the point but may ensure that Republicans are doomed to repeat history in 2020.

* PERFECT EXAMPLE OF WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. THE AUTHOR TALKS ABOUT 2020 AS IF REPUBLICANS COULD LOSE IN 2016 YET WIN AFTER FOUR MORE YEARS OF INCREASING DEMOCRATIC VOTER NUMBERS. RIDICULOUS! BUT THAT'S HIS SUBTLE WAY OF TRYING TO DEPRESS THE REPUBLICAN VOTE IN 2016.

(*SMIRK*)

* FOLKS... I CAN'T STRESS STRONGLY ENOUGH THAT THIS YEAR IS MAKE OR BREAK FOR OUR COUNTRY AND THAT THE LEFT... AND THE RINOs... ARE GOING TO DO EVERYTHING IN THEIR POWER TO SEE THAT THEIR POWER IS RETAINED, STRENGTHENED, AND SET IN CONCRETE VIA A WIN IN NOVEMBER THAT WOULD SIGNIFY "GAME OVER."

OK... This IS a Pretty Funny Column by Maureen Dowd

Maureen Dowd's column in today's NYT

And imagined meeting between "The Donald" and "The Speaker."

*  *  *

Paul Ryan and Donald Trump sit down at Republican National Committee headquarters on Capitol Hill to hash out a couple little things, like who is running the party and who is the actual Republican.

“Welcome to Washington, Donald,” Ryan says, shaking hands with the presumptuous nominee. “Reince says you’re far more gracious in private than in public and I sure hope that’s true.”

Trump smirks and pulls out his bottle of industrial-strength sanitizer, squirting a prodigious amount on his hands.

(*GUFFAW*)

Trying to thaw the chill, the House speaker displays his best ingratiating Irish undertaker air. “Hey,” he says, “thanks for not calling me Lyin’ Ryan.”

* YEAH... ABOUT THAT...

(*SMIRK*)

“I never use the same adjective twice,” Trump replies coolly. “As you know, I do have killer instincts. That’s how I knocked out 16 losers. So let’s try a few names for kicks. Pious Paul? Pompous Paul? Phony Paul? Back-Stabbing, Blindsiding Paul who hung me out to dry to protect his own presidential ambitions for 2020?”

* I VOTE FOR "PHONY PAUL."

Ryan blanches, protesting: “No, no, I just want us to come together with a positive vision.”

“I am positive,” Trump says, manspreading as party aides cower in the corners. “I’m positive that what you did was terrible. You’re just giving cover to more traitors, like that reject Lindsey Graham, who I beat like a toy drum. Now Nasty Lindsey’s on TV spewing hate and saying my convention should be held in Area 51. The only number he needs to remember is zero — the number of votes he got.”

Ryan puts on his best altar-boy demeanor, which annoys Trump.

“Look at that face!” the billionaire mocks. “Or should I say two? Two-Faced Paul."

* OOOH! I LIKE THAT ONE!

The Donald continued, "You’re just mad because you and Mitt wanted to lead white male America and instead I’m going to. Romney choked. And what about that time you lied about how fast you ran a marathon? Cheatin’ Ryan. A choker and a cheater.”

* I'D SAY "SCUMBAG" PRETTY MUCH COVERS IT.

“Now Donald, be reasonable,” Ryan says. “I’m just trying to figure out how to endorse you and not put my own majority at risk. We can’t be a bigoted, angry party. You just make our problem with Hispanics worse when you tweet a picture of yourself eating a taco bowl on Cinco de Mayo.”

“No way, José,” Trump says. “That got 80,000 re-tweets and 100,000 likes. Muy bueno. I have eight million Twitter followers. You have, like, one million and need two accounts to get there.”

(*CHUCKLE*)

Ryan rolls his eyes. “Thousands of those re-tweets were by people you offended,” he says. “You can’t judge everything by numbers. We have to maintain American values. Banning Muslims is not what we stand for. Try to be more like Reagan.”

“Fine,” Trump shoots back. “I’ll start my campaign in Mississippi Klan territory like Reagan. You Establishment guys are such phonies. You wanna use race as a wedge issue but be subtle about it. I AM NOT SUBTLE. I have brought millions of people into the party and you have been unbelievably unfair to me. I am the greatest political phenomenon in history.”

* GO, DONALD, GO!

“Donald, you need to rein it in,” Ryan persists. “Your volatility scares people. Everyone is shuddering at the thought that you are about to get classified intelligence briefings and at your bromance with Putin. No one believes that you’re a genuine conservative. You support Planned Parenthood, raising the minimum wage and some higher taxes on the wealthy, our people. You’re Bernie Sanders with even weirder hair.”

“Well, Two-Face,” Trump retorts, “if you’re such a big-deal conservative, why did you push for that budget increasing spending by billions, funding Obama’s executive amnesty program, relocation of terrorist refugees and sanctuaries cities — but somehow no money for the border fence? You’re a white Obama. Bad! Sad!! The nuns said your budgets were so mean and un-Christian they wanted to beat erasers around your head.”

* I'D LOVE TO BEAT RYAN TO A BLOODY PULP...

* SORRY... JUST THINKING OUT LOUD...

(*WINK*)

“Donald, the party is off the rails,” Ryan says. “Ordinarily, people who hate each other always pretend not to once the nomination has been clinched. Jeez, the Bushes are boycotting your convention.”

Trump harrumphs. “Well, I have Four-Eyes Rick Perry doing a groveling about-face to support me. Who wants the Bushes, that pathetic dynasty? Sour grapes because I called out Dubya on his horrible war and Jeb on his terrible campaign. No low energy in Cleveland! My convention is going to rock with celebrities and hot women. We’re going to have Mike Tyson and that tiger. We’re going to have Bobby Knight and Miss Aruba M.C.-ing. We might even have a beauty pageant with Gary Busey judging. Carly won’t be in it. But your wife...”

Ryan interrupts quickly, “Donald, you have to stop insulting women. You’re starting to make Todd Akin sound like Lena Dunham.”

“Women love me!” Trump objects. “Didn’t you see that famous New York Post headline quoting Marla, my second wife, saying, ‘Best Sex I’ve Ever Had’? I love the women who vote for me — even the poorly educated, flat-chested ones.”

(*TWO THUMBS UP*)

* OH... COM'ON... IT'S FUNNY!

(*GIVING DOWD CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE*)

Ryan, beaten down and late for his P90X workout in the House gym, gives it one last shot.

“Donald, you need to stop quoting The National Enquirer and do some homework,” he pleads. “You can’t suggest we are going to slough off our debt, even though that’s what you did with your creditors when you kept going bankrupt. And you should remember that I’m the senior elected Republican in the country.”

“For now,” Trump murmurs, taking out his hair spray for a spritz before he walks past the press octopus. “What I will remember is that you sabotaged me when I should have been savoring my success. And you should remember the No. 1 rule from “The Art of the Deal”: There can be only one No. 1, Two-Face.”

(*STANDING OVATION*)